Expanded plantings have brought projections for the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop to 213 million cwt, a 12-percent increase from a year ago, the May 2014 Rice Outlook, from USDA/Economic Research Service, reported.
Imports are unchanged from 2013/14, while beginning stocks are down 20 percent from a year earlier. On balance, total supplies in 2014/15 are projected to be 6 percent larger than in 2013/14.
Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 230.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier. Total domestic and residual use is projected at 128 million cwt, up three percent from a year earlier. Total exports are projected at 102 million cwt, an increase of seven percent from 2013/14. These supply and use forecasts result in an ending stocks forecast of 34.3 million, an increase of 17 percent from 2013/14.
The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $13.50-$14.50 per cwt, down from a revised $15.20-$15.80 per cwt in 2013/14 and the lowest since 2011/12. The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $18.50-$19.50 per cwt, up from a revised $17.70-$18.30 per cwt for 2013/14.
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at a record 480.7 million tons (milled basis), up one percent from a year earlier. Record production is projected for Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.2 million tons, an increase of 1.5 percent from a year earlier. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 109.8 million tons, down about 1 percent from a year earlier.
Information from USDA/Economic Research Service, Rice Outlook No. RCS-14E, May 2014, by Nathan Childs, USDA/ERS agricultural economist.